The Red and Black

Issue date: 11/21/08 Section: News

MARTIN

The very reason why Democrats want Jim Martin to be elected the U.S. Senator from Georgia may be what ultimately causes his defeat, a University professor and renowned elections expert told Athens business executives Thursday.

In a Rasmussen poll released Wednesday, "52 percent of Georgians polled said if Georgia does seem to determine whether Democrats get 60 seats, they'll be less likely to vote for him," said Charles Bullock, political science professor of legislative politics. "That includes even 9 percent who say they are inclined to vote for him now."

Democrats searching for a 60-seat majority to filibuster-proof the Senate have made Georgia the "center of the political universe for awhile," Bullock said to the Athens Chamber of Commerce. The Rasmussen poll shows Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss at 50 percent with Martin trailing slightly behind at 46 percent.

Republican incumbent senators historically win in runoff races, because remobilizing voters is difficult, he said. But efforts before Dec. 2 could make a difference.

"Any political player with resources might as well spend what they have now," he said with a smile.

Part of what helped Martin in the general election stems from President-Elect Barack Obama's successful campaign strategies that flowed down ticket and strategic errors by Chambliss, he said.

"The incumbent is better known and has resources to define a challenger negatively before he can introduce himself so the challenger has to undo that before building up from there," Bullock said. "But Chambliss didn't do that" because "the little polling in early September showed him up by double digits."

Before Martin released ads on Oct. 9, polls showed 45 percent of Georgians polled didn't know who he was. By Election Day, 85 percent recognized him, and he established a positive persona before Chambliss poured money into ads a few weeks later.

Regardless of what happens in the race, the Republican party must make major modifications, he said.

"It may take awhile to get retooled, but it will happen," said Bullock, who was invited to speak about the election.

"All the tea leaves looked like it would be a great year for the Democrats," he said, pointing to campaign contributions, ballots and historic trends.

Votes cast based on the economy - polled as the most pressing issue by 63 percent of voters - were in favor of Obama. John McCain carried 93 percent of voters who considered experience the most important candidate quality, but only one-fifth of voters said it was the most important thing.

"Far more people were stressing change than experience … Barack Obama had the right theme for the conditions … and he got there first," Bullock said, citing his approach toward change, youth voters through technology and Hispanic and African American voters through increased voter registration and mobilization. "You build a better mousetrap, you design a better campaign."

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